Highlights

• The World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) are supporting Armenia, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan in different aspects of disaster risk management (DRM), including establishment of a crisis management center, seismic risk assessments, and institutional capacity building to increase the resilience of critical infrastructure against recurring natural hazards.

• Delegates from these three countries attended Japan’s 36th Comprehensive Disaster Prevention Drill of Nine Prefectural and City Governments in Saitama City, an exercise that mobilized more than 10,000 participants from 136 stakeholders including governments, private sector, schools and NGOs.

• Japan’s expertise and knowledge in DRM will continue to support Armenia, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan to enhance disaster preparedness measures and urban resilience policies.

Countries of the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region are regularly affected by adverse natural events. Over the last 30 years, floods and earthquakes alone caused 50,000 fatalities, affected nearly 25 million people, and resulted in US$80 billion in damage. While disaster profiles and vulnerabilities vary across Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan; all three countries, however, share in common a predominant seismic risk.

Given the seismic profile of several countries in the ECA region, the World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), with support from the Government of Japan and other donors, recently invited government representatives from Armenia, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan to take part in an Experts Visit to Japan. This visit provided an opportunity for participants to improve their respective crisis management systems by learning first-hand about Japan’s experience in disaster preparedness and response systems at national and local levels. Japan, a country that has accumulated much knowledge and operational experience in disaster risk management (DRM) through its own experience with recurring natural disasters, has actively promoted cooperation at a global level to reduce the number of disaster-related victims. Through "Japan-World Bank Program for Mainstreaming DRM in Developing Countries", the World Bank DRM Hub, Tokyo, GFDRR, and the Government of Japan have been working closely to mainstream DRM in national development planning and investment, including World Bank operations, by capitalizing on Japanese expertise and best practices.

The level of coordination and dedication displayed during public awareness activities in Japan was one of the most impressive features of the visit, according to visiting delegates from the ECA region. In Japan, these can also be included within wider commemorative events such as disaster simulation drills. The Government of Japan held the National Simulation Drills at state level and 36th Comprehensive Disaster Prevention Drill of Nine Prefectural and City Governments, hosted by Saitama City on September 1, 2016, a coordinated effort to simulate a comprehensive emergency response to a major earthquake in the Nankai Trough (off the central and western coast of Japan). This important exercise is normally taken place on "Disaster Prevention Day" in Japan, commemorating the devastated earthquake happened in Kanto region in 1923. On the same day, various disaster simulation drills were taken place in 36 out of 47 prefectures, and mobilized 1 million participants across the country.

Over the course of a week, Armenian, Kyrgyz, and Tajik officials engaged in discussions with a wide range of national agencies and municipal authorities in Japan, which are involved in several DRM activities:

• In Tokyo, delegates also had a Courtesy Call with the State Minister (in charge of disaster management) from the Cabinet Office of Japan – an agency responsible for supervising disaster management efforts at a national level – to discuss challenges and opportunities in implementing DRM measures. Based on observations of the simulation drill in Saitama City, the delegates committed to propose a similar exercise once they return to their respective countries. In terms of follow-up steps, the State Minister offered further collaboration between the DRM Hub, Tokyo and the Cabinet Office in disseminating Japan’s knowledge and expertise in disaster risk management.

• The delegates also met with officials from the Urban Safety Division of Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) to discuss lessons learned from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, and learn more about the national system of municipal subsidies, which are used for building more resilient urban fabric.

• In their meeting with the Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA), participants were particularly interested in J-ALERT, which can instantly transmit emergency information, such as earthquake and tsunami early warning, both via satellite and online from the central government to the local governments and designated communication hubs such as major media and mobile operators. The information is then immediately disseminated to local residents through various devices such as outdoor broadcasting systems and cellphones (via emails and text messages).

• The visit also featured concepts of resilient urban planning, and showed how these have evolved in Japan – also known as Bousai Machidukuri. Delegates were also able to meet with the Kobe City Government to study how the City of Kobe was able to learn from the disastrous consequences of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in 1995, and re-think their approach to improve municipal preparedness measures and streamline post-earthquake city redevelopment efforts.

• To better understand the function of risk communication measures in Japan, delegates were able to interact with a group of residents in Bunkyo neighborhood in Tokyo, which proactively promote “self-help” approach to improve emergency response capacity at the community level. The delegates also visited the Maiko High School in Kobe City to observe unique initiative to foster young leaders in the community through disaster resilience education is fully integrated into the high school curriculum.

This visit offered valuable insights that will support at-risk countries in the ECA region in mainstreaming disaster preparedness measures and urban resilience considerations into their respective policies and programs. Acknowledging the proactive approaches to DRM, which are undertaken in countries like Japan, the World Bank and GFDRR, are committed to expanding such efforts on seismic risk reduction and management in the ECA region and will continue to support the Governments of Armenia, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan as they shift away from a reactive disaster response system to a more integrated disaster risk management and resilience-building approach.

The Experts Visit was made possible with the support of the "Japan-World Bank Program for Mainstreaming DRM in Developing Countries" through the DRM Hub, Tokyo, and by other donors. The Experts Visit also builds on the Central Asia Earthquake Risk Reduction Forum in October 2015, a collaborative effort that reviewed ongoing earthquake risk reduction efforts in central, their potential fiscal impacts, and stimulated the dialogue on risk reduction initiatives among policy makers and practitioners in the region. Over 70 policy makers, experts and practitioners from governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as development partner representatives, international experts, regional research and academic institutions, universities, civil society groups, media, and World Bank staff attended this Forum in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

What will the apocalypse look like? Ever since Nov. 8, it's been hard not to imagine the United States morphing into a lawless, post-nuclear wasteland ruled by Immortan Trump. Yet Oregon faces a threat that's arguably more dangerous than the rise of any despot, the looming Cascadia earthquake.

It's a terrifying prospect, especially in the wake of New Yorker writer Kathryn Schulz's notorious 2015 article, in which Kenneth Murphy of the Federal Emergency Management Agency ominously declared, "Everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast." The quake is predicted to devastate Portland and up to 140 square miles of the Pacific Northwest—quite an event for a city where a few inches of snow is considered a "Snowpocalypse."

When I first heard about this, I shelved it in one of the back corners of my mind, near my youthful love of The Phantom Menace. When I finally read "The Really Big One," I was stabbed with despair: the collapse of a million buildings and our region's economy. According to FEMA, thousands of people will die.

There's not much we can do about that. What's the best way to give ourselves a fighting chance? Build a disaster preparedness kit.

It's not hard to find a list of items for that kit. But before you start shopping, pause for a minute and think about your overall strategy.

"There's a lot of groundwork that needs to be done before you even start worrying about the kit," says Althea Rizzo, geologic hazards program coordinator at Oregon Emergency Management.

Rizzo says the key isn't to hit Costco and stuff everything on the Red Cross' exhaustive list into a big duffle bag, it's to make plans to stash that stuff wherever you expect to be when the quake hits.

"We really recommend that people look at their lifestyle, look at where they spend time, and just squirrel away food and supplies there," she says. "Make sure you have a flashlight at work or a gallon or two of water. Maybe that's all you can put in your cubicle, but if you do, it'll still be more than you had yesterday."

You'll want to spread supplies across multiple locations—and in your car, which will be in multiple locations.

"We recommend people keep seven to 10 days' worth of supplies in their car because we're Americans, so we usually have our cars with us," Rizzo says. "So if you have seven to 10 days of supplies at your office and seven to 10 days of supplies in your car, that's two weeks' worth of supplies."

Of course, if disaster strikes while you're at work, you're still going to need a way to get home. The Hawthorne, Steel, Interstate and Fremont bridges are expected to collapse. Anyone who needs to cross the Willamette should prepare to walk across the revamped Sellwood Bridge or Tilikum Crossing, both of which are earthquake-resistant.

Rizzo is also quick to emphasize that communication is crucial to surviving any natural disaster. That's why picking a post-fallout meeting spot for family and friends is important, as is tapping a relative who lives outside the impact area as an emergency contact.

The other pressing issue is water. If you've got water, you've got at least a few days to figure things out.

"One gallon per person per day is the rule of thumb," says Monique Dugaw, director of communications for the Red Cross in the Cascades region. When expanding your kit, Dugaw says water, nonperishable food and first-aid supplies "are the three basics to start with."

Rizzo also emphasizes the importance of post-disaster hydration. "At home, I have 14 days' worth of water for two people," she says "But that's probably not going to be enough. So what I have is a couple of different ways to purify water."

This is something anyone can do. A basic water-purification straw costs $14 on Amazon, allowing you to stash them in your car, house and office.

The more I talked and read and learned, the more I realized that survival, like anything, depends on strategy.

"Most of the people who died in the Indonesian earthquake and tsunami died because of the tsunami," Rizzo says, "and they died because they did not know what to do."